SYSTEMIC RISK CONSULTING LLC. ALPHAADDER

Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.

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Tuesday, April 10, 2018

China Dipped as predicted. Affected us as predicted. Change around 4/21

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Right Again, which gives confirming info about future potential events. Told you in 2007 what was going to happen in 2008. Told you 20...
Wednesday, January 03, 2018

2018 View from 30,000 ft. Both China and USA

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China end of Vol Cluster. 2/10 Susceptible to exogenous event.  IF NO EXOGENOUS EVENT, THEN NO PHASE TRANSITION. Close to our Inflecti...
Monday, June 26, 2017

UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21

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Monday, May 22, 2017

Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer

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Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us.  Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They br...
Monday, August 24, 2015

One last time. Thank You to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute

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First, Thank you to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute at Stern Business School NYU and its supporters, for allowing me this ven...
Saturday, June 29, 2013

Look what showed up in the Bradbury Museum in Los Alamos. I honor my late father A.J. Klapetzky

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If you would, please kindly allow me this one time, to deviate from the market. This is BEAR, as it was leaving Los Alamos National Labor...
Monday, December 01, 2008

I TOLD YOU SO... i told you so. 12/1/08

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Volatility incredibly high. It will end in the near future. There will be a relief ralley of sorts, then we will have a sucker punch come ...
Monday, January 07, 2008

1/7/08 System "Critical" and susceptible to six sigma event.

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As I said volatility was expensive and there would be an explosive move. It happened, a head fake ralley and volatility cheapened. Well the ...
Tuesday, November 27, 2007

SECOND PHASE PEAKING. ITS A HEAD FAKE.

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SECOND PHASE PEAKING AS I ORIGINALLY DESCRIBED THE CHAIN EVENTS IN PREVIOUS POSTS. SHORT TERM REVERSAL COMING UP. ITS A HEAD FAKE. THE LEM...
Thursday, August 10, 2006

Even a unforeseen surprise , will not surprise.

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Volatility to continue, within slightly elevated levels. Not a high degree of correlation with participants. "Rational Optimizers"...
Friday, May 12, 2006

Short Term Volatility within expected bounds

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Yesterday Dow down 140+. This morning futures down big. To be expected with current news. Market will absorb it and behave within expected v...
Monday, May 01, 2006

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The large complex dynamic system we call the Stock Market is not self-organizing at this point. The system is far from critical. Value has d...
Monday, August 22, 2005

Stock Market endogenous dynamic.

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Empirical observations of the U.S. stock market and of agent based models show catostrophic “avalanches” of volatility that could not be e...
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