Volatility to continue, within slightly elevated levels. Not a high degree of correlation with participants. "Rational Optimizers" in charge of this market. The real estate market here in Florida is another issue. LOL! It is funny to watch how people chase returns after the fact, and leverage up with an asset that has already run up. Sound familiar? Reasonably valued Cash generating assets, with good balance sheets are king. Find cash flows that you can quantifiably confirm have the fundamentals beneath them to confidently, and consistently generate expected cash returns.
I am not excited about indices, but even at this point we are not in a "phase" that would be susceptible for a large catastrophic avalanche of volatility. No six sigma or greater events on the horizon within the S&P 500.
Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Even a unforeseen surprise , will not surprise.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
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