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UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21

Recent posts

Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer

Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us.  Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They bring to light things we did not see, fundamentally. In fact, they are correct most of the time regarding the issues that will be our downfall--- eventually, after a while.  Problem is they are a tiny, tiny minority in relation to the "Hidden Hand" of the masses, that are naturally more optimistic.  The Bears will be right eventually, but the opportunity cost is high waiting for the masses to flip. Wasted money on untimely unnecessary hedging.  Missed returns due to not being allocated correctly. It will not be a straight line, could be quite volatile as we continue to climb the "Wall of Worry".

Keeping you up to date as promised. Volatility has not lost its regressive behavior.

1.Volatility has not lost its regressive behavior. It was not a full on panic, with substantial buying on the close. This bodes well, unless there is an "exogenous" event. We are still highly correlated, sensitive and susceptible until we reach escape velocity away from this inflection point weakness. Even with that being said, I would suspect the larger event to be no sooner than September, based on non-AlphaAdder artifacts. It has lined up to be most susceptible starting around September 21. I have had a higher degree of confidence that September is an inflection point, than I did of May.

2. It would be understandable for a technical retest of recent lows before we muddle ahead to a positive slope.

3.  Mea culpa. I should have waited for clear trend developing leaving the inflection period, before talking about S&P 500 3600.  In retrospect I applied very short timing for trading derivatives that has been successful with these artifacts, inconsistent with S&P alloc…

Concerning. Close in time to previously identified inflection time point.Facts have changed. Watching for persistancy

Concerning.  The facts have changed so I change my mind. Disregard previous post, until further notice. We are not out of the woods yet. I was aware of the Trump issues, and observed no response at that point hence a lean toward an upward equity persistency till September in the last point. Well, that Pot has continued to be stirred. The markets outsized reaction to this perceived exogenous development confirms criticality.  As previously identified for the past year, in advance we are in a inflection point. We are in a point of the phase that the system pertubations propogate more aggressivly, as opposed to a different point in rime where the same inputs would have very different ouputs.We are still to close to the previously identified inflection point and have not escaped yet. Watching the nature of this movement. What is important and I will be watching is if the volatility becomes persistant or remains regressive. I will keep your posted!

MELT UP into September

Crunch time. Coming into inflection point. New Project!

Please review posts from May 11, 2016 forward, and its always a good idea to review August 22, 2005!

We keep bouncing up against 2400 as I showed in the two previous posts, we potentially could.  Time is running out for both sides of volatility, and one will win.

As previously mentioned over the past year in previous posts, periods of susceptibility (points of potential inflection) are May and September.  This view is not of Alphaadder, but an observation from the past twelve years of implementing Alphaadder.  It appears to be a natural oscillator related to the Self Organizing Phenomenon.

If you are not familiar with Self Organizing Criticality/Complexity/Network science, (like most normal people!) the following paragraph might seem opaque or even obfuscation.  It is not. The paths from here are organic and flowing like a Riverway's ebbing and flowing developing paths, they are not Binary:   1. The Self Organized System reacts to an exogenous event, and my friend that has been …

Muddling till May view