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| Textbook Wall of Worry. You've already forgotten being worried during those dips, haven't you. |
As it stands now. Potential end of cycle contracting Mid 2020. Still.
Activity between now and then either confirms this, or sets up new timing. Importantly, either way, volatility remains auto-regressive until that time. Further setting in Anchoring Behavior, and a stronger and stronger feedback loop. Double Edged Sword.
I am reading more and more negative prognostications about impending doom. This is really healthy, and holds off the Six Sigma Event. Counterintuitive.
Further; The signals are NOT as well defined and clear as they were in 2007. This has direct bearing on the size and distribution of the future event. Signals in 2007 were terrifyingly clear. Not as much currently- A good thing.
Going forward. Volatility- Yes. Expected, and of a an expected degree, that will make you cringe, and question your resolve, but in the end, will be a continued Climbing of the Wall of Worry with stopping points in the graph above.
If I continue publishing, I will do it without the timing component you have seen here. It is a distinct competitive edge/advantage that I will no longer keep in any computer. I am applying solely within my proprietary trading going forward. If I continue to publish here, I will clarify Phase, and Context.
Current Phase/Context: Self Organizing towards Criticality, and will become Susceptible to an exogenous event causing a large Volatility Event in the intermediate future. We are nearing the end of this second record long market run. Enjoy the Runup to the end-DO NOT GET ATTACHED. DO NOT ANCHOR. BE AGILE. PROTECT YOUR BALANCE SHEET. DO NOT FOOL YOURSELF INTO THINKING YOU KNOW WHAT THE UNFORSEEN EVENT WILL BE, THAT TRIGGERS THE CASCADE.
Cheers!
Bob K
