As I said volatility was expensive and there would be an explosive move. It happened, a head fake ralley and volatility cheapened. Well the New Year arrived, and volatility has once again increased, and the system is critical.
The market is susceptible to a six sigma crash currently, at any time from some unforseen event. The biggest risk is the unforseen risk, as always. Interesting times globally. Cash is king in my book, even if it is a weak dollar.
Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.
Monday, January 07, 2008
1/7/08 System "Critical" and susceptible to six sigma event.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
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