Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.
Monday, June 26, 2017
UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, May 22, 2017
Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer
Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us. Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They bring to light things we did not see, fundamentally. In fact, they are correct most of the time regarding the issues that will be our downfall--- eventually, after a while. Problem is they are a tiny, tiny minority in relation to the "Hidden Hand" of the masses, that are naturally more optimistic. The Bears will be right eventually, but the opportunity cost is high waiting for the masses to flip. Wasted money on untimely unnecessary hedging. Missed returns due to not being allocated correctly. It will not be a straight line, could be quite volatile as we continue to climb the "Wall of Worry".
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
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