Visible on the Horizon, and over the Horizon. Criticality, Inflection point and Phase Transition.

 SystemicRiskConsulting LLC's AlphaAdder can see what is developing On the Horizon, and over the Horizon due to Self Organizing Criticality.

On the Horizon AA has identified a rough patch in 2nd Qtr 2026.

High Volatility expected, but we will not lose auto regressivity, even if "ugly", and will recover.

Over the Horizon, AlphaAdder has identified the "Criticality" time period within the Cap weighted S&P 500, Nasdaq and Tech Sector.  (S&P due to its stealth concentration in tech because of Cap weighting, as opposed to the equal weighted option, which has been, and will continue to outperform)

The time period; "Criticality", where the system has self organized to the point of "Criticality", and will be susceptible to the random exogenous event, causing cascading avalanches of volatility- aka "Crash"

AlphaAdder Banking System Risk Index Update and new AlphaAdder REGIONAL Banking System Risk Update

AlphaAdder Banking System Risk Index is up and running, building it's library. It has already caught notable activity not seen elsewhere.  Of note, unlike the Cleveland FRB SRI, AA is NOT using the KBE.

Additionally proud to announce that at the same time started the AlphaAdder REGIONAL Banking System Risk Index to observe results, and the verdict is in, and its good.  It is up and running, also building its library.

 https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7333812220969074688/

AlphaAdder US Banking System Risk Index and US Banking System Status Tool Forthcoming.

 "Have been looking at the details of the Systemic Risk Index produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://lnkd.in/gKwm8zTA

It is a coincident indicator. It could be much more.
It reflects all currently known information about the ETF KBE, with applied classical and generally accepted methods.
Of course, from a Complexity/Self-Organizing Practitioner's perspective, this has important implications for what it does not and cannot do.
It cannot and does not Identify Self-Organizing towards Criticality, Criticality, or Phase, all of which would be useful to truly identify Banking Systemic Risk. This would allow us to determine when the banking system is truly susceptible to a random unforeseen event, causing a crash, or know that a random unforeseen event won't cause a crash. (AA calls that “System Status”- Is it Susceptible or Not Susceptible to the Random Unforeseen event)
Further, one might do the above on the individual banks in the KBE index to identify company-specific risk.
Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder has been doing this successfully on the S&P 500 since 2005."

CONVERTING TO LANDING PAGE FOR SRC LLC. Last Time Complexity In Markets Identified Here. AA is under SRC LLC. AA worked well with BTC & 10yr.

 

AlphaAdder has identified Complexity in Current Market. This is last time it will be stated publicly.

Meaningful Self Organizing Confirmation not yet finalized. My suspicion after doing this for almost thirty years, is perhaps, might get it by year end roughly. If so, Event Horizon Narrows, and Future Inflection Points come into focus. To be epistemologically humble, that is still speculative at this moment.

A meaningful Confirmation, should it happen, would be paired with future dates of Market Inflection Points/Turns, and Approximate Date of "Criticality", where System has become Susceptible to an unforeseen exogenous event, causing a Six Sigma or Greater Avalanche of Volatility, aka Crash. Again, Not There Yet, just explaining the potential paths, yet to be determined.

Publicly announcing here that AlphaAdder also worked very well with the 10 Year Treasury exhibiting Complexity and Self Organization prior to 2020 crash and Interest Rate Directional change. Absolutely stunning results with BTC as well, once the necessary data became available with both new BTC Futures and new BTC Options Contracts.

AlphaAdder is under the Umbrella of Systemic Risk Consulting LLC.

If You are a Country, A Central Bank, or a Global Asset Allocator I can be Reached initially at BobK  At SystemicRiskConsulting Dot Com.

Markets don't crash when EVERYONE thinks they will. Neither Bounces, Drops Nor Crashes last forever.

 MARKETS DON'T CRASH WHEN EVERYONE THINKS THEY WILL.

That is what just happened, and why I took some time off.  EVERYONE I spoke to was SURE the market was going to crash.  If that is the case it probably won't. The biggest up moves are within Bear Market rebounds, and we just had one. Key words there are Bear Market.  Yogi has yet to hear the "Fat Lady" sing.

How does that affect AlphaAdder?  Naturally, as in Nature, It has pushed the Crash Out.  It is still out there, it has just moved to the right on the time axis.

Next Pre Crash Peak in volatility is around the end of this month, approximately 8/30/2022.

The Six Sigma event is still on the horizon. I have the approximate date, and other perspectives that will surprise you. 

The Timing of the Six Sigma Volatility Event, and all of my writings going forward are a Service built for Global Asset Allocators. There will be no more entries here.  A Service Not just for Financial Asset Managers, but for the C-suite of Global Entities that understand the immense Power of being able to identify when a large complex dynamic system the company is involved with has reached the point of "Criticality", and headed towards a "Phase Transition" aka Crash, that no other system has shown its efficacy through MULTIPLE economic cycles as Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder has.

This Service will give you a Competitive advantage over your Peers. Period.  The confidence to step up to the plate, when all others shy away.  The backbone, to pull in your horns, when all your peers have on their rose colored glasses, and are leveraged up. Directly affecting your critical measured performance metrics, as a company, and as an Executive Manager.

Avoid  unseen beneath the surface catastrophic risks with Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder that has a unique, historic three decade Track Record of doing just that. Unique and Unprecedented Results that are timely, useful and actionable. If you are a Global Asset Allocator, or a C-suite Executive and are Interested Please email me. 

BobK@SystemicRiskConsulting.com