If you would, please kindly allow me this one time, to deviate from the market. This is BEAR, as it was leaving Los Alamos National Laboratory on its way to White Sands Missile Range. It is now I understand at the Bradbury Museum back home in Los Alamos. It was shot into space, tested and recovered. A "Star Wars" Strategic Defense Initiative project from Los Alamos National Laboratory. At its core is a particle beam device that I watched my father tinker with in his Lab at LAMPF, and eventually get to work- to everyone's surprise. He was deservedly proud of this accomplishment, and I of him. Never thought I'd be able to talk about it. Strange coincidence that I found this out the same day I found out that Voyager 1 is about to leave our Solar System. Data from Voyager was what I was looking at as an 17 year old intern in the Astrophysics division at LANL at the same time (1984). A cosmic yin yang it seems. 73-s Dad.
Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished to Protect IP. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Look what showed up in the Bradbury Museum in Los Alamos. I honor my late father A.J. Klapetzky
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, December 01, 2008
I TOLD YOU SO... i told you so. 12/1/08
Volatility incredibly high. It will end in the near future. There will be a relief ralley of sorts, then we will have a sucker punch come out of left field seemingly. That will be the end of the phase transition; and we will have a new market with new leaders, and the rational optimizers will be in charge for a while.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, January 07, 2008
1/7/08 System "Critical" and susceptible to six sigma event.
As I said volatility was expensive and there would be an explosive move. It happened, a head fake ralley and volatility cheapened. Well the New Year arrived, and volatility has once again increased, and the system is critical.
The market is susceptible to a six sigma crash currently, at any time from some unforseen event. The biggest risk is the unforseen risk, as always. Interesting times globally. Cash is king in my book, even if it is a weak dollar.
The market is susceptible to a six sigma crash currently, at any time from some unforseen event. The biggest risk is the unforseen risk, as always. Interesting times globally. Cash is king in my book, even if it is a weak dollar.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
SECOND PHASE PEAKING. ITS A HEAD FAKE.
SECOND PHASE PEAKING AS I ORIGINALLY DESCRIBED THE CHAIN EVENTS IN PREVIOUS POSTS.
SHORT TERM REVERSAL COMING UP. ITS A HEAD FAKE. THE LEMMINGS WILL BE DRAWN IN AGAIN FOR THE SIX SIGMA EVENT AHEAD.
IT IS THE FINAL REVERSAL BEFORE THE CRASH. TIME NOT DETERMINABLE, BUT IT IS TIME TO SHIFT THE RISK TO OTHERS. VOLATILITY AT THIS POINT IS EXPENSIVE. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A RAPID VIOLENT MANNER.
SHORT TERM REVERSAL COMING UP. ITS A HEAD FAKE. THE LEMMINGS WILL BE DRAWN IN AGAIN FOR THE SIX SIGMA EVENT AHEAD.
IT IS THE FINAL REVERSAL BEFORE THE CRASH. TIME NOT DETERMINABLE, BUT IT IS TIME TO SHIFT THE RISK TO OTHERS. VOLATILITY AT THIS POINT IS EXPENSIVE. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A RAPID VIOLENT MANNER.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Even a unforeseen surprise , will not surprise.
Volatility to continue, within slightly elevated levels. Not a high degree of correlation with participants. "Rational Optimizers" in charge of this market. The real estate market here in Florida is another issue. LOL! It is funny to watch how people chase returns after the fact, and leverage up with an asset that has already run up. Sound familiar? Reasonably valued Cash generating assets, with good balance sheets are king. Find cash flows that you can quantifiably confirm have the fundamentals beneath them to confidently, and consistently generate expected cash returns.
I am not excited about indices, but even at this point we are not in a "phase" that would be susceptible for a large catastrophic avalanche of volatility. No six sigma or greater events on the horizon within the S&P 500.
I am not excited about indices, but even at this point we are not in a "phase" that would be susceptible for a large catastrophic avalanche of volatility. No six sigma or greater events on the horizon within the S&P 500.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
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