UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21

Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer

Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us.  Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They bring to light things we did not see, fundamentally. In fact, they are correct most of the time regarding the issues that will be our downfall--- eventually, after a while.  Problem is they are a tiny, tiny minority in relation to the "Hidden Hand" of the masses, that are naturally more optimistic.  The Bears will be right eventually, but the opportunity cost is high waiting for the masses to flip. Wasted money on untimely unnecessary hedging.  Missed returns due to not being allocated correctly. It will not be a straight line, could be quite volatile as we continue to climb the "Wall of Worry".

One last time. Thank You to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute

First, Thank you to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute at Stern Business School NYU and its supporters, for allowing me this venue, and the ability to interact with my academic friends during meetings I attended there and at the NY Fed.  Wonderful experiences and people.  Keep up the great work.

S and P 500 sideways to up from here, approaching recent highs.

Look what showed up in the Bradbury Museum in Los Alamos. I honor my late father A.J. Klapetzky

If you would, please kindly allow me this one time, to deviate from the market. This is BEAR, as it was leaving Los Alamos National Laboratory on its way to White Sands Missile Range. It is now I understand at the Bradbury Museum back home in Los Alamos.  It was shot into space, tested and recovered.  A "Star Wars" Strategic Defense Initiative project from Los Alamos National Laboratory.  At its core is a  particle beam device that I watched my father tinker with in his Lab at LAMPF, and eventually get to work- to everyone's surprise. He was deservedly proud of this accomplishment, and I of him.  Never thought I'd be able to talk about it. Strange coincidence that I found this out the same day I found out that Voyager 1 is about to leave our Solar System.  Data from Voyager was what I was looking at as an 17 year old intern in the Astrophysics division at LANL at the same time (1984).  A cosmic yin yang it seems.  73-s Dad.

I TOLD YOU SO... i told you so. 12/1/08

Volatility incredibly high. It will end in the near future. There will be a relief ralley of sorts, then we will have a sucker punch come out of left field seemingly. That will be the end of the phase transition; and we will have a new market with new leaders, and the rational optimizers will be in charge for a while.

1/7/08 System "Critical" and susceptible to six sigma event.

As I said volatility was expensive and there would be an explosive move. It happened, a head fake ralley and volatility cheapened. Well the New Year arrived, and volatility has once again increased, and the system is critical.

The market is susceptible to a six sigma crash currently, at any time from some unforseen event. The biggest risk is the unforseen risk, as always. Interesting times globally. Cash is king in my book, even if it is a weak dollar.