Worlds first successful application of Complexity Theory to A Market. 2005 Paper: "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise' and Crash Precursors". Unpublished to Protect IP. Its purpose was to apply SOC/Complexity theory in real time and see if it was possible to identify Crash Precursors to Six Sigma Volatility Events in the S&P 500. Successfully identified Crash Precursors prior to 2008 and 2020 Crashes, . PLEASE READ FIRST ENTRY 8/22/2005 FOR CONTEXT. NOT ADVICE.
Sunday, May 13, 2018
Effects of China Cluster End Done. Despite Stretched Valuations we return to "Crawling wall of Worry"
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
China Dipped as predicted. Affected us as predicted. Change around 4/21
Right Again, which gives confirming info about future potential events. |
Told you 2016 what was going to happen in 2017, and in 17 for 18. Jan for rest of year.
Added China in January 2018, and told you in advance how it would affect the US in Febuary through May. (Halfway there)
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Wednesday, January 03, 2018
2018 View from 30,000 ft. Both China and USA
China end of Vol Cluster. 2/10 Susceptible to exogenous event. IF NO EXOGENOUS EVENT, THEN NO PHASE TRANSITION.
Close to our Inflection Point, not an ending point for us necessarily-a ways off.
Buy Vol shortly before 2/10 related to CHINA FXI (with greater than 30 day expiration to remove time decay risk.)
THE INFLECTION POINTS IN CHINA AND THE USA ARE DIFFERENT. THE INFLECTION POINT IN CHINA IS AN END OF VOLATILITY CLUSTER.
We have an inflection point around 4/21, but it is not an end of cluster point. It is a point, of a change of direction. If China starts to pull us down starting around 2/10, we will have a persistency to go down also until around 4/21, at which time there will be a change of direction/persistency to flat, and or up.
If accurate than it gives confirmation of when we will have a Six Sigma Volatility event in the future. I am keeping that to myself, for now.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, June 26, 2017
UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, May 22, 2017
Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer
Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us. Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They bring to light things we did not see, fundamentally. In fact, they are correct most of the time regarding the issues that will be our downfall--- eventually, after a while. Problem is they are a tiny, tiny minority in relation to the "Hidden Hand" of the masses, that are naturally more optimistic. The Bears will be right eventually, but the opportunity cost is high waiting for the masses to flip. Wasted money on untimely unnecessary hedging. Missed returns due to not being allocated correctly. It will not be a straight line, could be quite volatile as we continue to climb the "Wall of Worry".
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
Monday, August 24, 2015
One last time. Thank You to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute
First, Thank you to Dr. Robert Engle's Volatility Institute at Stern Business School NYU and its supporters, for allowing me this venue, and the ability to interact with my academic friends during meetings I attended there and at the NY Fed. Wonderful experiences and people. Keep up the great work.
S and P 500 sideways to up from here, approaching recent highs.
For context read first entry: "STOCK MARKET ENDOGENOUS DYNAMIC" 8/22/05 @ WWW.ALPHAADDER.BLOGSPOT.COM
Disclaimer: Comments are opinion; specific to systemic risk management, and are not investment advice.
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