The Hidden Hand of Contextual Temporal Value Systems, and Perceived Priorities

     6/27/2018 Wall of Worry.  Asset Prices Extended by many measures
Doesn't matter at this point, (for a while) Adam Smith's Hidden Hand
is in charge.  Asset Prices are Temporal, Contextual and based on
Perceived Priorities-Review 8/22/05 Entry
     People, AND NOW MACHINES, are being conditioned.  Everybody is riding the predictable churn of autoregressive behavior by the market.  As it always does, it will work, until it doesn't, Catostrophically.  Of course, the other side of the coin is the old admonition to Short Sellers; That the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
     The dearth of liquidity is being caused by the increasing integration of A.I. into High Frequency Systems, and its corresponding increasing rapidity of stepping away from the market.  This increases frequency of "Flash Crashes", from which we recover.  My concern is what will happen the next time the System has again Self Organized to the point of Criticality, and is Susceptible to a Six Sigma Volatility event, and the Machine Firepower is potentially overwhelming combined with the normal endogenous phase transition forces.

Return to current Endogenous Dynamic Slope.

I CHALLENGE YOU:  IS THERE ANY OTHER ENTITY OUT THERE WITH THESE RESULTS?  

Effects of China Cluster End Done. Despite Stretched Valuations we return to "Crawling wall of Worry"

China Dipped as predicted. Affected us as predicted. Change around 4/21

Right Again, which gives confirming info about future potential events.

Told you in 2007 what was going to happen in 2008.
Told you 2016 what was going to happen in 2017, and in 17 for 18. Jan for rest of year.
Added China in January 2018, and told you in advance how it would affect the US in Febuary through May.  (Halfway there)

2018 View from 30,000 ft. Both China and USA

China end of Vol Cluster. 2/10 Susceptible to exogenous event.  IF NO EXOGENOUS EVENT, THEN NO PHASE TRANSITION.

Close to our Inflection Point, not an ending point for us necessarily-a ways off.

Buy Vol shortly before 2/10 related to CHINA FXI (with greater than 30 day expiration to remove time decay risk.)

THE INFLECTION POINTS IN CHINA AND THE USA ARE DIFFERENT.  THE INFLECTION POINT IN CHINA IS AN END OF VOLATILITY CLUSTER.

We have an inflection point around 4/21, but it is not an end of cluster point.  It is a point, of a change of direction.  If China starts to pull us down starting around 2/10, we will have a persistency to go down also until around 4/21, at which time there will be a change of direction/persistency to flat, and or up.

If accurate than it gives confirmation of when we will have a Six Sigma Volatility event in the future.  I am keeping that to myself, for now.

UPDATE: Moving up timetable. Inflection point is around 8/21

Stumble into September, dragging Uber Smart Bears along longer

Many "Bears" are among the "Smartest" among us.  Their education, analytical skills and research are top notch. They bring to light things we did not see, fundamentally. In fact, they are correct most of the time regarding the issues that will be our downfall--- eventually, after a while.  Problem is they are a tiny, tiny minority in relation to the "Hidden Hand" of the masses, that are naturally more optimistic.  The Bears will be right eventually, but the opportunity cost is high waiting for the masses to flip. Wasted money on untimely unnecessary hedging.  Missed returns due to not being allocated correctly. It will not be a straight line, could be quite volatile as we continue to climb the "Wall of Worry".