Markets don't crash when EVERYONE thinks they will. Neither Bounces, Drops Nor Crashes last forever.

 MARKETS DON'T CRASH WHEN EVERYONE THINKS THEY WILL.

That is what just happened, and why I took some time off.  EVERYONE I spoke to was SURE the market was going to crash.  If that is the case it probably won't. The biggest up moves are within Bear Market rebounds, and we just had one. Key words there are Bear Market.  Yogi has yet to hear the "Fat Lady" sing.

How does that affect AlphaAdder?  Naturally, as in Nature, It has pushed the Crash Out.  It is still out there, it has just moved to the right on the time axis.

Next Pre Crash Peak in volatility is around the end of this month, approximately 8/30/2022.

The Six Sigma event is still on the horizon. I have the approximate date, and other perspectives that will surprise you. 

The Timing of the Six Sigma Volatility Event, and all of my writings going forward are a Service built for Global Asset Allocators. There will be no more entries here.  A Service Not just for Financial Asset Managers, but for the C-suite of Global Entities that understand the immense Power of being able to identify when a large complex dynamic system the company is involved with has reached the point of "Criticality", and headed towards a "Phase Transition" aka Crash, that no other system has shown its efficacy through MULTIPLE economic cycles as Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder has.

This Service will give you a Competitive advantage over your Peers. Period.  The confidence to step up to the plate, when all others shy away.  The backbone, to pull in your horns, when all your peers have on their rose colored glasses, and are leveraged up. Directly affecting your critical measured performance metrics, as a company, and as an Executive Manager.

Avoid  unseen beneath the surface catastrophic risks with Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder that has a unique, historic three decade Track Record of doing just that. Unique and Unprecedented Results that are timely, useful and actionable. If you are a Global Asset Allocator, or a C-suite Executive and are Interested Please email me. 

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A REVERSE AlphaAdder Perspective on Current Volatility Cluster, its ending and correlation with AA ending. A different tool for decay versus order.

 This is NOT an AlphaAdder Post.  AlphaAdder deals with Self Organizing towards Six sigma events.

This speaks to REVERSE AlphaAdder which deals with Volatility Clusters; their probable decay length, aftershocks, echoes and the diabolical percolating risk that hides unseen during rebounds in this phase. One of Several Pioneering Risk Management tools developed during the Seventeen year Applied Experiment.

Autoregressive behavior like the Efficient Market Hypothesis, works, UNTIL IT DOESN'T, CATOSTROPHICALLY.  Many clever ride that train into the ground, amassing millions, then poof. Every Cycle. Every Cycle. Watched it for thirty years. AlphaAdder helps one disembark the train before it runs off the rails, over the cliff, or into another train.

It speaks to the length of the current cluster, that an unforeseen event can have multiplicative explosive affects.  This despite watching Volatility decompress and markets rebound.  It is much more fragile than you can see on the surface.  This Vol cluster unseen percolating beneath the surface risk lasts until 8/11.  

Should an unforeseen event happen Volatility will explode.  This could morph into the Six Sigma event, or it decompresses, and Six Sigma event is recalculated by AlphaAdder. I, of course would update here.

Don't be walking in front of this steam roller picking up Nickels, you might slip. Risk Reward ratio is immensely upside down.

As it stands right now Inflection Points within the Current Decaying Vol Cluster are:

5/31 which is beginning of Next Week. This weeklong deadcat bounce is ending essentially now.

Next IP  shortly after that 6/16 I expect another brief Deadcat bounce.

Volatility Should Continue Decompressing down into 7/8-12

And be free to explode after that in Mid July- Mid August.  Which Dovetails nicely with the previously mentioned AlphaAdder perspective, which gives me further confidence in my Six Sigma event forecast.

System has Self organized to Point of Criticality and is Susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility caused by Unforeseen Event around end of July.

 As previously mentioned  expected to see Vol Cluster end around 5/18.   Not bad. Also as previously said-This increases confidence of being in "Tune" with the SOC, and with what is now to come.

As it stands now, We are susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility Events at the end of July/beginning of August. 7/27-29/2022

Remember I said to reallocate on a bounce? Your chance to rebalance is coming up again.

 I can't leave y'all swinging in the wind, lol.

Volatility Probably peaking here. Roughly. Approximately, over the next several days 5/18ish. Then, Expect a "dead cat" bounce. Risk On assets back on, and Risk Off assets soften again. Bond Principle values at risk again, till next Vol Cluster in two months. 

So If you got caught in this downswing, you will have an opportunity potentially to recover, as I see volatility receding through July.  Whew.  It will draw in the lemmings for the final hammer drop.

Each time AlphaAdder is correct, increases the confidence level on the probability and timing of Six Sigma or greater Volatility events on the Horizon now.

Don't be leveraged IN ANYTHING.  Debt as a percentage of Capitalization is also an important metric now for survivability judgements across all entities.

Review relationships for high debts and leverage.  When "it hits the fan", entities with high debts and leverage fail in avalanches with cascading affects to their partners.

Aside from the short term bounce probable, keep in mind the bigger systemic picture.  The system has self organized to "Criticality" and is susceptible to Six Sigma or greater volatility events, caused by an "unforeseen" event.  This future event will affect markets, it will affect logistics, it will affect everything.

It is the Adaptable that survive.  The flexible, the Non-"Optimized".  As it is in nature, because this is natural.

Important FINAL COMM HERE AS A COURTESY: This Side of the Horizon NOW

 Various Markets Globally are Self Organizing towards Criticality, and will shortly be susceptible to Six Sigma and Greater volatility events aka Crashes. Like many metronomes started separately and randomly, over time, they are coming closer to synchronization. 

I will repeat here what had previously been sent out in direct encrypted comms the past few weeks and months as I watched it develop, and warned that this cycle would be far shorter than the last two.

China's fall peaks Mid May, then US Nasdaq and S&P500 in following months.  Crash(s) It is now on THIS SIDE OF THE HORIZON. That's 50% of Global GDP.

Crypto's still highly correlated to Nasdaq, so any diversification affect is questionable.

Treasuries had a phase transition and have been on an increasing interest rate slope since.  There will be a flight to safety during the crash. Into Dollars and Treasuries. Temporarily.

Gold also had a phase transition and has been on a positive slope since.

The place to be is NOT in Stocks. Any bounces, I would reallocate to a "Protect what ya got" Capital preservation mode.  Rough seas ahead, and few places to hide this time.

After the crash Deep value with Dividends is prudent. Traditional Deep Value, Graham and Dodd and G.A.R.P methodologies usually do well. Commodities and "Things" will do continue to do well this cycle. Increasing interest rates are good for banks.  Industrials, Energy and Commodities might be the winners in this next cycle as well.

Expect crazy volatility in the months ahead.  After the crash there will be a temporary bounce, but then a retest of lows.  Reverse Alpha Adder will be informative on that retest, and the length of the tail.

Lastly, last phase of this twenty four, possible to even look at it as a thirty eight year project is done.  Important parts of AlphaAdder have been codified into software, custom Computers and Live Feeds are integrated and up and running. Not all is in the software though, so even if I'm completely hacked, its Not All There. I always assume I'm hacked.  The unique library grows daily.

Please prepare.  Don't make your "Water dam" to heights equal to previous water line high's. There will always be "New Highs".  Dry and Canned Goods as well.  Hard Cash. Precious Metals on hand. Be prepared for more "High Water Marks" never seen before as the Dutch learned, and do.