Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Remember I said to reallocate on a bounce? Your chance to rebalance is coming up again.

 I can't leave y'all swinging in the wind, lol.

Volatility Probably peaking here. Roughly. Approximately, over the next several days 5/18ish. Then, Expect a "dead cat" bounce. Risk On assets back on, and Risk Off assets soften again. Bond Principle values at risk again, till next Vol Cluster in two months. 

So If you got caught in this downswing, you will have an opportunity potentially to recover, as I see volatility receding through July.  Whew.  It will draw in the lemmings for the final hammer drop.

Each time AlphaAdder is correct, increases the confidence level on the probability and timing of Six Sigma or greater Volatility events on the Horizon now.

Don't be leveraged IN ANYTHING.  Debt as a percentage of Capitalization is also an important metric now for survivability judgements across all entities.

Review relationships for high debts and leverage.  When "it hits the fan", entities with high debts and leverage fail in avalanches with cascading affects to their partners.

Aside from the short term bounce probable, keep in mind the bigger systemic picture.  The system has self organized to "Criticality" and is susceptible to Six Sigma or greater volatility events, caused by an "unforeseen" event.  This future event will affect markets, it will affect logistics, it will affect everything.

It is the Adaptable that survive.  The flexible, the Non-"Optimized".  As it is in nature, because this is natural.






2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice analysis, being adaptable - the language of spinors.

Bob Klapetzky said...

Thank you. Spinors- I like it.