A REVERSE AlphaAdder Perspective on Current Volatility Cluster, its ending and correlation with AA ending. A different tool for decay versus order.

 This is NOT an AlphaAdder Post.  AlphaAdder deals with Self Organizing towards Six sigma events.

This speaks to REVERSE AlphaAdder which deals with Volatility Clusters; their probable decay length, aftershocks, echoes and the diabolical percolating risk that hides unseen during rebounds in this phase. One of Several Pioneering Risk Management tools developed during the Seventeen year Applied Experiment.

Autoregressive behavior like the Efficient Market Hypothesis, works, UNTIL IT DOESN'T, CATOSTROPHICALLY.  Many clever ride that train into the ground, amassing millions, then poof. Every Cycle. Every Cycle. Watched it for thirty years. AlphaAdder helps one disembark the train before it runs off the rails, over the cliff, or into another train.

It speaks to the length of the current cluster, that an unforeseen event can have multiplicative explosive affects.  This despite watching Volatility decompress and markets rebound.  It is much more fragile than you can see on the surface.  This Vol cluster unseen percolating beneath the surface risk lasts until 8/11.  

Should an unforeseen event happen Volatility will explode.  This could morph into the Six Sigma event, or it decompresses, and Six Sigma event is recalculated by AlphaAdder. I, of course would update here.

Don't be walking in front of this steam roller picking up Nickels, you might slip. Risk Reward ratio is immensely upside down.

As it stands right now Inflection Points within the Current Decaying Vol Cluster are:

5/31 which is beginning of Next Week. This weeklong deadcat bounce is ending essentially now.

Next IP  shortly after that 6/16 I expect another brief Deadcat bounce.

Volatility Should Continue Decompressing down into 7/8-12

And be free to explode after that in Mid July- Mid August.  Which Dovetails nicely with the previously mentioned AlphaAdder perspective, which gives me further confidence in my Six Sigma event forecast.

System has Self organized to Point of Criticality and is Susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility caused by Unforeseen Event around end of July.

 As previously mentioned  expected to see Vol Cluster end around 5/18.   Not bad. Also as previously said-This increases confidence of being in "Tune" with the SOC, and with what is now to come.

As it stands now, We are susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility Events at the end of July/beginning of August. 7/27-29/2022

Remember I said to reallocate on a bounce? Your chance to rebalance is coming up again.

 I can't leave y'all swinging in the wind, lol.

Volatility Probably peaking here. Roughly. Approximately, over the next several days 5/18ish. Then, Expect a "dead cat" bounce. Risk On assets back on, and Risk Off assets soften again. Bond Principle values at risk again, till next Vol Cluster in two months. 

So If you got caught in this downswing, you will have an opportunity potentially to recover, as I see volatility receding through July.  Whew.  It will draw in the lemmings for the final hammer drop.

Each time AlphaAdder is correct, increases the confidence level on the probability and timing of Six Sigma or greater Volatility events on the Horizon now.

Don't be leveraged IN ANYTHING.  Debt as a percentage of Capitalization is also an important metric now for survivability judgements across all entities.

Review relationships for high debts and leverage.  When "it hits the fan", entities with high debts and leverage fail in avalanches with cascading affects to their partners.

Aside from the short term bounce probable, keep in mind the bigger systemic picture.  The system has self organized to "Criticality" and is susceptible to Six Sigma or greater volatility events, caused by an "unforeseen" event.  This future event will affect markets, it will affect logistics, it will affect everything.

It is the Adaptable that survive.  The flexible, the Non-"Optimized".  As it is in nature, because this is natural.