System has Self organized to Point of Criticality and is Susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility caused by Unforeseen Event around end of July.

 As previously mentioned  expected to see Vol Cluster end around 5/18.   Not bad. Also as previously said-This increases confidence of being in "Tune" with the SOC, and with what is now to come.

As it stands now, We are susceptible to Six Sigma or greater Volatility Events at the end of July/beginning of August. 7/27-29/2022

Remember I said to reallocate on a bounce? Your chance to rebalance is coming up again.

 I can't leave y'all swinging in the wind, lol.

Volatility Probably peaking here. Roughly. Approximately, over the next several days 5/18ish. Then, Expect a "dead cat" bounce. Risk On assets back on, and Risk Off assets soften again. Bond Principle values at risk again, till next Vol Cluster in two months. 

So If you got caught in this downswing, you will have an opportunity potentially to recover, as I see volatility receding through July.  Whew.  It will draw in the lemmings for the final hammer drop.

Each time AlphaAdder is correct, increases the confidence level on the probability and timing of Six Sigma or greater Volatility events on the Horizon now.

Don't be leveraged IN ANYTHING.  Debt as a percentage of Capitalization is also an important metric now for survivability judgements across all entities.

Review relationships for high debts and leverage.  When "it hits the fan", entities with high debts and leverage fail in avalanches with cascading affects to their partners.

Aside from the short term bounce probable, keep in mind the bigger systemic picture.  The system has self organized to "Criticality" and is susceptible to Six Sigma or greater volatility events, caused by an "unforeseen" event.  This future event will affect markets, it will affect logistics, it will affect everything.

It is the Adaptable that survive.  The flexible, the Non-"Optimized".  As it is in nature, because this is natural.

Important FINAL COMM HERE AS A COURTESY: This Side of the Horizon NOW

 Various Markets Globally are Self Organizing towards Criticality, and will shortly be susceptible to Six Sigma and Greater volatility events aka Crashes. Like many metronomes started separately and randomly, over time, they are coming closer to synchronization. 

I will repeat here what had previously been sent out in direct encrypted comms the past few weeks and months as I watched it develop, and warned that this cycle would be far shorter than the last two.

China's fall peaks Mid May, then US Nasdaq and S&P500 in following months.  Crash(s) It is now on THIS SIDE OF THE HORIZON. That's 50% of Global GDP.

Crypto's still highly correlated to Nasdaq, so any diversification affect is questionable.

Treasuries had a phase transition and have been on an increasing interest rate slope since.  There will be a flight to safety during the crash. Into Dollars and Treasuries. Temporarily.

Gold also had a phase transition and has been on a positive slope since.

The place to be is NOT in Stocks. Any bounces, I would reallocate to a "Protect what ya got" Capital preservation mode.  Rough seas ahead, and few places to hide this time.

After the crash Deep value with Dividends is prudent. Traditional Deep Value, Graham and Dodd and G.A.R.P methodologies usually do well. Commodities and "Things" will do continue to do well this cycle. Increasing interest rates are good for banks.  Industrials, Energy and Commodities might be the winners in this next cycle as well.

Expect crazy volatility in the months ahead.  After the crash there will be a temporary bounce, but then a retest of lows.  Reverse Alpha Adder will be informative on that retest, and the length of the tail.

Lastly, last phase of this twenty four, possible to even look at it as a thirty eight year project is done.  Important parts of AlphaAdder have been codified into software, custom Computers and Live Feeds are integrated and up and running. Not all is in the software though, so even if I'm completely hacked, its Not All There. I always assume I'm hacked.  The unique library grows daily.

Please prepare.  Don't make your "Water dam" to heights equal to previous water line high's. There will always be "New Highs".  Dry and Canned Goods as well.  Hard Cash. Precious Metals on hand. Be prepared for more "High Water Marks" never seen before as the Dutch learned, and do.

Welcome to a Glimpse of Systemic Risk Consulting's AlphaAdder's Fifteen Year Applied Complexity Experiment.

Dear Sir or Madam; 

Thank you very much for your interest.

I have temporarily put SystemicRiskConsulting.com to Public so you can view the relevant  posts related to the original Hypothesis. There are many more, but these are visible to help you hone in on the Important Points. 

The original Hypothesis proven: It was Indeed possible to Identify when the S&P 500 had self organized to the point of criticality and was susceptible to an unforeseen exogenous event causing a Crash. This was done in two different Economic Cycles, in vastly different circumstances, fourteen years apart. 

To Wit:

1.  Dated and Time Stamped Evidence of Statements of System Criticality Prior to Six Sigma plus Phase Transitions of 2008 and 2020. I wrote these entries for myself, to ensure I wasn't fooling myself. To be Epistemologically humble and transparent over two Economic cycles to observe the efficacy of the hypothesis in a real world application. 

.2. The Original Entry Monday August 22, 2005 is the Original Entry for Context.  It contains bits and pieces of Proprietary paper:  "Stock Market Endogenous Dynamic, 'Noise', and Crash Precursors", written 1998-2005. Inspired by Per Bak, and watching my Quotron melt in 1998 due to LTCM, and noticing similarities with my 1984 work at LANL.

Over the past fifteen years developed a "Very Pioneering" Complete Systemic Risk Management Suite for the S&P 500. "Reverse AlphaAdder". "IP"'s, "S^3", "P^3", "AlphaOmega", "Phase" and other useful non intuitive artifacts that are Distinct Competitive advantages tactically and strategically.

Ended Applied Experiment Successfully with the Correct Call prior to 8-Sigma moves in 2020. 

At the Urging of others I began to apply AA to a Global Pallet of assets where sufficient data was available, (One at a time) and it became evident that it's applicability was far greater than I had comprehended, as I was focused on the S&P500 because of its depth, breadth, and Importance. With the new massive implications of what can be done, I  Stopped Publication, and went back to school for Computers to build Infrastructure necessary to execute on a Global Scale. After School, and Six months in the Field, I, purchased the Global Data Streams, and I am currently designing the System to execute this vision incrementally towards a final goal. The End Result will be as, if not more significant than my work thus far. 

Thank you for your time and Consideration.

Bob Klapetzky 

March 4th 2020 Stating Criticality Call BEFORE 8+ Sigma Event

2019 View from 30,000 feet above. CHINA CHINA CHINA

HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL NOT TO BE SHARED EXCEPT BY PERMISSION OF AUTHOR

2019 View from 30,000 feet by ALPHAADDER. January 1st, 2019

CHINA  CHINA   CHINA AS IN FXI

The endogenous dynamic driving the markets currently as verified by current and previous Volatility Cluster originates from CHINA.


INFLECTION POINT:  2/13/19

INFLECTION POINT: 5/1/19

SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXOGENOUS EVENT:  9/2/19


NOW LETS LOOK AT USA S&P 500 IN ISOLATION BELOW

THE USA AND CHINA ARE IN LOCKSTEP.  THE DATES ARE NEARLY THE SAME.